In the coming weeks, the war in Gaza will be over. Do not expect anything like George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” declaration on the USS Abraham Lincoln flight deck in 2003, but the facts on the ground will speak on their own.
While the government could get the IDF to drag out the operation in Rafah for an extra week or two, it won’t be able to do that for long. The IDF will withdraw forces and will begin to redeploy along the border, moving from the high-intensity stage of the war to pinpointed strikes, more focused on maintaining the gains made over the last eight and a half months.
This is the exact point for a political plan to be outlined and revealed and it needs to happen soon. For the gains and successes of this war to be fully achieved and last, a political resolution needs to be put on the table.
The refusal to do this has been the greatest mistake of this war, since in the absence of a clear plan the only thing the world hears are the comments by the likes of Itamar Ben-Gvir, who call to reoccupy and resettle the Gaza Strip.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a plan, government sources explain, adding that he does not want to reveal it to not undermine its chances for succeeding.
While this might be true, Israelis deserve to know what is happening and where this is all going. While he prepares for his speech before Congress next month, the prime minister might want to first consider speaking to the Israeli people to explain where this is all going.
The reason that now is the time is because Hamas has been weakened and its capabilities have been degraded. While Israel is naturally skeptical of the chances that a new governing entity would be able to confront Hamas and prevent it from rearming, it is exactly for this reason that the government needs to work with its Arab allies and the Americans to ensure that the successes on the battlefield are preserved.
Instead, the government is spreading false promises that it is possible to eliminate and destroy Hamas or that Israel is just a step away from a “complete victory” as the prime minister likes to claim. What the IDF can do – contrary to what some Likud mouthpieces claimed this week – is degrade Hamas and dismantle its military capabilities. But, it cannot eliminate Hamas, an ideology that is embedded deep in the hearts of the Palestinian people in Gaza.
For Hamas to cease to exist, Israel needs to help facilitate the establishment of an alternative. This does not mean that the alternative will be an Israeli puppet or that the IDF will need to stop operating in Gaza.
On the contrary – it will need to retain operational freedom there like it has in the West Bank. What it does mean is that for this war to lead to a new reality, there needs to be a new governing entity, one that can stand up to Hamas, serve the people of Gaza and hopefully be a partner to the international community in the reconstruction of the Strip and the deradicalization that it needs to undergo.
If this does not happen, there will be a power vacuum that will almost definitely be filled by a hostile entity. How do I know this? Just by watching what has happened with every other vacuum that was created in the Middle East in recent decades. Sadly, moderate elements never fill them.
Israel pulled out of Lebanon in 2000? Hezbollah took over. Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005? Hamas took over. The Americans toppled Gaddafi in Libya? Anarchy took over. America pulled out of Afghanistan? The Taliban took over.
Despite knowing this, Israel is dragging its feet and instead of working with the Americans to get this plan in place, Netanyahu is picking fights with the administration at possibly one of Israel’s most sensitive moments – as it needs to prepare the political day after and as war grows closer with Hezbollah.
When Netanyahu put out a video on Tuesday blasting the Americans for holding up weapon deliveries – which the White House said it has no idea what he is talking about – there was a senior Israeli delegation in Washington preparing for a much-anticipated strategic dialogue on Iran. Upset at Netanyahu for his video, the Americans canceled the summit.
Netanyahu knew that this might happen so why did he put out the video? The answer is that he was thinking about local politics – shifting the conversation away from his instable coalition – and a belief within his close circle that tension with the Biden administration actually helps him with his constituents.
These voters like to see their prime minister stand up to international pressure. Netanyahu knows this and he also knows that having some tension ahead of his planned Congress speech could be the boost that he needs to finally take back the lead in the polls and pull ahead of Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party.
The coming US elections and the possibility that Donald Trump will return to the White House might also be a consideration.
Beyond the political maneuvering and the optics, the reality on the ground demands a comprehensive strategy.
The coming end of the war in Gaza requires the government to present a plan that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term political gains.
Netanyahu must seize this moment to articulate a clear vision for the future. The Israeli public, and indeed the world, deserve to hear a plan that goes beyond military tactics and addresses the big question – where do we go from here?
-------------------------------------------
The many flaws of the Chief Rabbinate
In two weeks, the term of Israel’s two chief rabbis – David Lau and Yitzhak Yosef – will come to an end. Allow me please to be one of the first to wish them good riddance.
The Chief Rabbinate in Israel has long been the opposite of what it was supposed to be. It does not bring people closer to Judaism and instead pushes them away. Evidence is rampant but just look at these two numbers: In 2022, roughly 39,000 couples registered marriages through the Chief Rabbinate. It was nearly the same number in 2011, despite the Jewish population growing 20% in the intervening years.
In addition, a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that just 10% of secular Jews, who represent about 40% of the Jewish population here, said they have trust in the Chief Rabbinate. It was the lowest rating ever.
There are a number of reasons why this has happened but first and foremost is the haredi stronghold over the rabbinate, the increased political intervention in matters of religion and state – as seen this week by the attempt to pass the so-called “Rabbis Law” – and the outrageous and oftentimes racist comments that these purported religious leaders make.
Lau, the outgoing Ashkenazi chief rabbi, made a racist jibe about Black basketball players a few years ago; he paid a shiva call to the family of a haredi writer who had killed himself after allegations of rape and sexual assault of minors were made public; and he blocked conversions of new immigrants for months to gain political leverage against a government initiative.
Yosef has been worse. He has called Black people monkeys; he has repeatedly disparaged Reform and Conservative Jews in some of the most despicable ways; and he most recently threatened to leave Israel if haredim were forced to serve in the IDF.
It is not enough that these two men are leaving their jobs; it is time for thorough change to the balance between religion and state in Israel. For that to happen though, people have to demand it as some Likud members did this week, getting Netanyahu to block the Rabbi’s Law and stop it from coming for a vote.
Something has long been broken in the state’s relationship with Jewish religion – instead of striving to open up Judaism to the people and make it more accessible, the state has tightened its grip on religion, turning more people away.
Creating a free market would not only heal internal domestic tension but would also improve Israel’s relationship with the Diaspora. This situation can change and when it does, it will create a more Jewish society, one where the free market will generate greater opportunity for engagement with our ancient story.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.